Democrats conflate weather and climate change in bids for 2020 nomination

As Democrats are vying for the 2020 nomination, many of them are talking about environmental issues in a way that conflates specific storms and extreme weather events with the broader impacts of climate change.

While research has found the central part of the U.S. could see more intense heat and rain events as a result of changes to the climate, many scientists are reluctant to make immediate connections between the broader trend and specific extreme weather events. But some Democrats have made the connection between predictions of more severe weather events and the <a href="” target=”_blank”>recent flooding and tornadoes in the Midwest, especially as they campaign in crucial primary states like Iowa.

While research has found the central part of the U.S. could see more intense heat and rain events as a result of changes to the climate, many scientists say they’re reluctant to immediately point to climate change in the aftermath of a specific weather event or storm.

PHOTO: A graph in a report about attributing severe weather to climate change shows how confident researchers are about the connection to different kinds of events. National Academies of Science

A graph in a report about attributing severe weather to climate change shows how confident researchers are about the connection to different kinds of events.

President Donald Trump has often been called out for making the same error of connecting weather and climate and using that to contradict climate science, like implying that global warming could cancel out a historic cold front.

More than half of Americans said they saw climate change as responsible for the severity of hurricanes in 2017, a big increase over the prior 10 years according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Dana Fisher, a sociology professor at the University of Maryland who studies politics and climate change, said it’s not surprising Democrats are talking more about that connection as a way to distinguish themselves from Trump and make climate change a more tangible issue.

“When people go to the voting booth it’s very hard to get people to vote about polar bears and ice caps when they’re worried about child care and health care in their communities. But extreme weather actually takes climate change to the community level where people have homes,” she told ABC News.

Fisher studies the Democratic base and says climate change has been rated as a priority in recent years, so it will be a critical issue for any Democrat to win the nomination.

Multiple candidates reference extreme weather in their climate change platform and in recent weeks at least two candidates, Gov. Jay Inslee who has centered his campaign on climate change and Sen. Elizabeth Warren released videos connecting the storms and flooding in Iowa to climate change. Both messages make the statement that if the country doesn’t take some kind of action to slow the effects of climate change the community will continue to see similar storms and floods.

Mayor Pete Buttigieg has also made the connection in reference to flooding in Indiana, saying the image he thinks about with climate change is helping families in South Bend during recent floods.

Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford University that studies the connection between climate change and weather events, said there is evidence that climate change is contributing to more severe storms and rain events in the midwest as warmer temperatures create more water vapor in the atmosphere.

But scientists are still cautious about connecting any specific weather event to changes in the climate and typically only make that determination after the fact.

PHOTO: Downtown Davenport, Iowa, and the surrounding area is covered by Mississippi River floodwaters, May 3, 2019.Kevin E. Schmidt/Quad City Times via AP

Downtown Davenport, Iowa, and the surrounding area is covered by Mississippi River floodwaters, May 3, 2019.

“We don’t want to attribute something to global warming unless we’re highly confident,” he told ABC News, adding “That’s because we’re looking at events that are more extreme, they’re record-breaking they’re more extreme than we have historical experience for so chance does play a role.”

Diffenbaugh said it’s important to acknowledge how climate change is influencing weather patterns so the country’s infrastructure can prepare for the potential for more frequent or more damaging storms, but that it’s also important to stick to the evidence of what we know.

“I would be comfortable standing here or there saying that we already know that events have been increasing historically in this part of the world and that objective rigorous analysis shows that global warming has increased the odds of extreme precipitation events in this region of the world, and in particular of record-breaking precipitation events in this region of the world,” he told ABC.

“And in order to understand the conditions that came together that will require specific analysis, but this is consistent with what has been occurring historically.”

While Diffenbaugh and other researchers say they are highly confident in the connection between climate change and the risk from severe storms in the central U.S., the strength of the connection to other kinds of events like hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires varies.

PHOTO: Damaged homes and debris mark the path of a tornado that struck Celina, Ohio, as seen from the air, May 28, 2019.Ryan Snyder/Daily Standard via AP

Damaged homes and debris mark the path of a tornado that struck Celina, Ohio, as seen from the air, May 28, 2019.

Multiple Democrats have referenced the recent tornado outbreak in the context of climate change, for example, but while research shows a connection to more intense storms it’s more difficult to find a direct connection to tornadoes.

Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have mentioned a connection and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who isn’t running for president but has been one of the most vocal Democrats about climate change, posted comments on her Instagram story connecting a recent tornado watch in Washington, DC to climate change. Ocasio-Cortez later posted an article and amended her statements to say that climate change does not cause tornadoes.

“Tornadoes are one of the few weather categories not proven to be impacted in some way by climate change. Heat waves, drought, and floods have a confident link. Snowstorms and hurricanes have loosely supported theories. But currently, there is no scientific evidence that climate change has an impact on severe thunderstorm and tornado frequency or intensity. Calendar and geography perhaps, but questions remain for supercell strength,” ABC News’ Chief Meteorologist Rob Marciano said.

But Fisher said it shouldn’t necessarily be up to politicians to capture all the nuances of the science in a campaign and that even if Democrats don’t capture all the details in statements connecting weather and climate they still seem to generally follow the science.

“That’s not what the president does but that’s what these people are supposed to be doing and as far as I’ve seen the Democrats are trying to make that connection and it seems like the American public is open to that.”

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Parker: This Economy Is a Gift to All Americans

Elaine Parker of Job Creators Network writes at foxnews.com that the rising tide of President Trump’s economic reforms is indeed lifting all boats, especially among blue-collar workers and the bottom 25 percent of wage-earners:

Some believe that President Trump’s economic reforms are only benefiting the country’s “one percent.” But in reality, the pro-growth policy agenda being pursued by the current administration is helping the Americans who need it most.

Recent data validates this claim. While wages have begun to climb across all segments of society, recent figures show that those in the bottom 25 percent of wage-earners – or Americans making roughly $20,000 or less – are experiencing the most rapid pay increases. This group has seen their paychecks swell by over four percent during the last year.

Additionally, wage growth for blue-collar workers continues to surpass the rate of their supervisors and managers month after month.

. . .

The overall unemployment rate – one of the more popular barometers of economic health – is at a five-decade low. In addition to being a figure economists repeat on television, the rock-bottom rate indicates that most people who want a job have one – a circumstance that is confirmed by recent Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com polling. The data reveals less than one-fifth of Americans are concerned with business layoffs in their area.

 

Read the rest of the piece here.

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Cricket World Cup: Australia’s Steve Smith & David Warner ‘should not be booed’

Australia have won a record five World Cups
ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup 2019
Dates: 30 May-14 July
Live coverage: Ball-by-ball commentary on Test Match Special, plus text commentary, clips and highlights on the BBC Sport website.

Australia coach Justin Langer has asked fans not to boo Steve Smith and David Warner during the World Cup.

The batsmen recently returned from year-long bans for their part in the ball-tampering scandal and were jeered throughout the warm-up victory over England in Southampton last week.

Defending champions Australia start their campaign against Afghanistan in Bristol at 13:30 BST on Saturday.

“They made a mistake and paid a big price for it,” said Langer.

“The media talk about earning respect and it’s really important that people show respect as well.”

Smith and Warner were given a hostile reception at the Hampshire Bowl, with both booed at the start of their innings and after being dismissed, while former captain Smith was also booed after making 50 and again when reaching a fine century.

Sections of the crowd chanted “cheat” at both players and fans wore costumes referencing sandpaper.

Smith and Warner, along with Cameron Bancroft, were found to have played a role in using sandpaper to tamper with the ball against South Africa in March 2018.

“After the experience of Hampshire, we have a pretty good idea what to expect – we’ve talked about it a lot and we can put strategies in place,” said Langer.

“That said, when it happens it doesn’t make it any easier. They are human beings, that’s the truth – and that’s what I find the hardest.

“I’m a dad and a lot of the time the kids see it. You feel for them personally and they are going to have to have thick skins.

“But I’d be disappointed by any player being booed at any cricket ground, regardless of what country they play for. It’s never a good look when that happens.”

Australia captain Aaron Finch confirmed Warner will play against Afghanistan after overcoming a glute injury.

One spectator, dressed as a cricket ball, threw sandpaper at Australia’s Glenn Maxwell in Southampton

Finch and Warner will open together, with Australia to choose between Shaun Marsh and Usman Khawaja to bat at three.

Afghanistan were thrashed by England in their second warm-up on Monday but impressed in beating Pakistan in their first warm-up earlier this month.

“They are a dangerous side – if you take your foot off the gas for a while, they will hurt you, and you still have to play at your absolute best to beat them,” said Finch.

“Winning their warm-up game against Pakistan, they played brilliantly. They have got a huge following, with support all over the world now, which is huge for cricket.”

‘Sri Lanka will be tough’

New Zealand, who were beaten by Australia in the 2015 final, begin their World Cup bid against Sri Lanka in Cardiff at 10:30 BST on Saturday.

The Black Caps have won seven of their past eight completed one-day internationals against Sri Lanka, including a 3-0 series win at home in January.

However, Kiwi captain Kane Williamson said: “I don’t know how much the past really counts as we come into a tournament.

“We know the Sri Lankan side is a little bit different to the one we played at home, but we have no doubt they’re a tough side.”

Sri Lanka are in the midst of an overhaul while New Zealand are hoping to go one better than in 2015

Following a poor run over the past two years, Sri Lanka dropped several established players for the World Cup and appointed Dimuth Karunaratne as captain after a four-year absence from the ODI side.

They are expected to struggle in the tournament and were comfortably beaten by Australia and South Africa in their two warm-up games, but Karunaratne said his side of “fresh faces” were determined to compete.

“We are trying to start again with this World Cup but we will be prepared really well,” he said.

“It’s not easy if you don’t know the players and they haven’t played a game for a long time. Even me, I came into the side after four years, so it’s not easy.

“But if you get a chance, you need to prove yourself. The new faces want to do well and they want to perform, to stay in the team – it’s a positive thing.

“In the recent past we couldn’t do much better, but we are now playing as a team.”

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11 Dead, Six Wounded in Virginia Beach Shooting

Twelve people were killed and six wounded when a gunman opened fire in a Virginia Beach municipal center on Friday.

CNN reports that earlier reports that the suspect was taken into custody have been updated to show that the suspect is dead. The deceased suspect was a “longtime public utilities employee.”

The shooting took place in Building 2 of the city’s municipal center.

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D) tweeted:

The Democrat and Chronicle quotes Virginia Beach Police Chief James Cervera saying that the shooter fired “indiscriminately” at people in the municipal building.

AWR Hawkins is an award-winning Second Amendment columnist for Breitbart News and the writer/curator of Down Range with AWR Hawkins, a weekly newsletter focused on all things Second Amendment, also for Breitbart News. He is the political analyst for Armed American Radio. Follow him on Twitter: @AWRHawkins. Reach him directly at awrhawkins@breitbart.com. Sign up to get Down Range at breitbart.com/downrange.

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Numbers for $444 Mega Millions jackpot will be drawn tonight

Grab your lottery tickets because the numbers have been drawn for the $444 Mega Millions jackpot.

Interested in Lottery?

Add Lottery as an interest to stay up to date on the latest Lottery news, video, and analysis from ABC News.

The numbers were 7-8-26-65-67 with a Mega Ball of 4.

The cash value is estimated at $221 million.

PHOTO: Powerball and Mega Millions lottery tickets are displayed on Jan. 3, 2018 in San Anselmo, California.Justin Sullivan/Getty Images, FILE

Powerball and Mega Millions lottery tickets are displayed on Jan. 3, 2018 in San Anselmo, California.

Winners must match all five numbers plus the Mega Ball to take home the big prize.

For the lowest prize of $2, players must match the Mega Ball number.

The Mega Millions drawing isn’t the only lottery with a large jackpot going into the weekend. With the Powerball jackpot currently at $350 million, the combined lotteries total just under $800 million

The next Powerball drawing will occur Saturday at 11 p.m.

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China Demands Control over ‘A.I. Governance’

China’s state-run Global Times on Thursday demanded a leading role for Beijing in formulating the global rules governing artificial intelligence (AI).

The Chinese paper was correct to believe that AI is something everyone in the world should be concerned about, but neglected to mention that China is one of the big reasons they should be concerned.

China is, without question, the world leader at using artificial intelligence technology to create totalitarian surveillance mechanisms. The Global Times brushes up against this point with amusing delicacy by boasting that facial recognition technology at a Chinese airport recently helped to catch a suspect accused of murdering his mother but studiously avoided mentioning the inescapable surveillance mousetraps created with such technology in places like Xinjiang province.

The alleged murderer caught by airport security was an interesting demonstration of what AI is already capable of. Barely six months after the airport in Chongqing installed a facial recognition system, a fugitive named Wu Xieyu who had evaded the authorities for three years by inventing dozens of false identities strolled into the airport and was identified by computerized cameras in a matter of minutes.

The Global Times argued that China should have a leading role in formulating “AI governance,” a worldwide code of ethics for the use of advanced autonomous computer technology. The paper admitted China does not have a firm set of legal protections for personal information in place but argued no one else in the world really has one yet, and Beijing’s authoritarian government is better positioned than most to impose such a code on giant tech companies:

First, we should pay more attention to AI governance, regarding it as a top priority. We must have a global vision from the very beginning in terms of AI governance and need to actively participate in governance initiatives of international organizations.

Second, relevant government authorities need to change the “development before governance” approach, focusing on governance while developing. Since many AI applications may directly affect public interests, it is necessary to abandon the “black box operation” mode and improve the publicity of relevant projects.

Third, given the difficulties in system construction, we must solve core problems first to address main conflicts. While the establishment of a personal information protection system lags behind, we need to make use of latecomer advantages to create more forward-looking legislation for personal information protection based on trends in AI development.

Last but not least, we have accumulated a lot of problems in internet governance in the past, such as the excessive collection and abuse of personal data on some platforms, the transparency of algorithms, the implementation of a third-party supervision system, the fairness and neutrality of search engines, and anti-monopoly issues regarding the internet. Before the mass application of AI technology takes effect, it is necessary to fix these problems to avoid their further amplification and deterioration.

The World Economic Forum is already hard at work putting together public-private councils to hammer out AI governance principles, as is the European Union. Speed is the heart of the problem. AI does not necessarily refer to living, thinking machines, as popular imagination tends to interpret the term. The defining characteristics of AI are speed and autonomy. AI systems work independently without detailed human supervision, which is all but impossible because the machines process so much data at incredible speed.

Human beings spent years trying to catch Wu Xieyu with their Mark I eyeballs. An AI system did it almost instantly by comparing his face, and everyone else’s, with a titanic database of people the authorities were interested in. Wu was nailed with 95 percent accuracy by four different cameras before a human overseer had any decisions to make at all.

Part of the problem is that different nations have different expectations for AI ethics and different standards of privacy. The United States theoretically has the most stringent expectations for privacy and individual autonomy in the world, although Americans have proven far more relaxed about extensive monitoring of their digital activity by both public and private organizations than civil libertarians expected at the turn of the millennium. The U.S. has been inclined to give industry self-regulation a chance before stepping in with federal laws.

The Europeans are a little further down the path of centralized regulation, as exemplified by the 2018 General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). The GDPR leans far more strongly toward protecting the privacy of individuals than authoritarian regimes like China or Russia consider reasonable. American and European ethicists are worried about how AI could reshape society. Authoritarian states are chomping at the bit to do exactly that. Chinese citizens are currently finding themselves unable to get on board trains because an AI system decided they were poor citizens.

A group called the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) bills itself as the first international effort to establish principles for A.I. governance, with 36 member countries and 6 non-member partners. It has numerous committees and subcommittees covering different aspects of the global digital economy. Its first set of recommendations was published this week, with an endorsement from the U.S. government. China, however, is not a member of the OECD.

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Anthony Joshua v Andy Ruiz Jr fight preview: Why Briton cannot really win in New York

World heavyweight title: Anthony Joshua v Andy Ruiz Jr
Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York Date: 1 June Time: About 03:30 BST, 2 June
Coverage: Live commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live and a live text commentary on the BBC Sport website

In New York on Saturday night Anthony Joshua has the glorious prospect of a victorious US debut, and yet in many ways a thankless task in view.

The WBA, WBO and IBF heavyweight champion of the world gets to shine under the lights of the famous Madison Square Garden against Andy Ruiz Jr but pretty much every outcome is likely to draw critics.

Ruiz, a late stand-in following Jarrell Miller’s failed drugs tests, has proved refreshing and eye-catching in fight week but the 29-year-old is no Deontay Wilder, the WBC champion, and nor is he former world champion Tyson Fury.

Joshua’s compatriot Fury will face similar scrutiny when he faces Tom Schwarz on 15 June – just what constitutes success when fans want different, bigger fights?

“I don’t think there is a result for Joshua that won’t bring some kind of criticism,” says Mike Costello, who will commentate for BBC Radio 5 Live from ringside.

“If he blows Ruiz away in a round, everyone says he is an unworthy opponent. If he takes 12 rounds, people will talk about decline.

“I think this is about Joshua appeasing himself and his team. They have to exist in a tunnel around this fight.”

Joshua says he hopes to face Fury next but such a bout is unlikely to take place for 12 months. For now, perhaps becoming the first man to stop Ruiz inside the distance will be enough to win praise.

“There is no sweet spot in this fight and he is not the first heavyweight champion going in there knowing no matter what he does he will be criticised,” reckons 5 Live analyst Steve Bunce. “There is no sweet spot, there is just victory and moving on.”

Promoter Eddie Hearn claims some 19,000 fans – including 8,000 Britons – will attend Madison Square Garden, where famous names like Muhammad Ali, Joe Frazier, Lennox Lewis and Evander Holyfield have fought.

In truth, Joshua’s impact on America has so far felt relatively low-key. British fans formed the brunt of around 4,000 present at Friday’s weigh in where in a lively atmosphere, the champion scaled 247.8lbs and Ruiz 268lbs.

Respected boxing author Thomas Hauser told BBC Sport this week that Joshua could walk down a New York street without being recognised and cited the “mess” that is the heavyweight division as a major issue when trying to suck new fans into boxing or raise your profile in America.

But even to box here is a landmark in Joshua’s already remarkable career and he is clearly taking the engagement seriously.

The Briton has been training in Miami to prepare in the same time zone as New York, has worked with a new psychologist leading up to the contest and has even teamed up with Navy Seals – apparently to bolster his skills in ‘crisis management’.

“They’ve been talking to him about their experiences and how they respond to getting shot, and how they control the aftermath,” explains Costello.

“How could he translate that to dealing with a knockdown? It reminds me of how trainer Adam Booth would work on the same thing by getting David Haye to tumble around the canvas and then get up and try and fight when he was so dizzy.”

Mexican style or a power show?

Former unified cruiserweight champion Oleksandr Usyk of Ukraine will be ringside on Saturday, which may increase speculation that he could be Joshua’s opponent later this year, if the Briton justifies odds of 1-25 by beating Ruiz.

But Ruiz, born in the US to Mexican parents, seems to care little for his underdog status and has walked around media events at ease all week, stressing he will become Mexico’s first world heavyweight champion.

At 6ft 2in, he is four inches shorter than Joshua and he has taken to studying Mike Tyson, a man who destroyed countless taller opponents and is one of Joshua’s heroes.

He has vowed to bring the renowned ‘Mexican style’, where fighters pressure opponents and often take shots in order to land work of their own.

If he can execute the strategy, he could negate Joshua’s natural reach advantage but it remains to be seen if he will be as keen to force himself forward if the champion lands something heavy early on.

Were Ruiz to win, he could stand alongside the likes of James ‘Buster’ Douglas – who conquered Tyson – and Hasim Rahman – who humbled Lewis – as a fighter to send a shockwave through boxing.

‘An early night’ – what they said

Ruiz: “The movement the speed, the pressure, all that will come together. He has never fought someone who pressures him. I don’t know how he fights going backwards but we have to stick to the plan.”

Joshua: “Getting used to the time zone was most important and I feel fresh. No challenge is easy, no matter what the odds say. Andy is going to come in here and give me a real good fight and cause problems.”

Costello: “Were Joshua to lose, it wouldn’t be a career-ending defeat but a career-changing one, as it would impact his power at the negotiating table.”

Bunce: “It will be a better and harder fight than people imagine. It may only last two or three rounds but it will be hard until that point.”

Hall of Fame trainer Freddie Roach: “I trained Ruiz for seven years. He doesn’t look the part but don’t underestimate him as he can punch, has good hands and is fast. If you take him lightly he will upset you.”

Former two-weight world champion Carl Frampton: “Ruiz is probably better than people give him credit for. Looking at the size difference though, I think when Joshua lands it could be over. It could be an early night.”

An undercard title show

BBC Radio 5 Live will run commentary from Madison Square Garden from 01:30 BST as two other world-title contests feature on a packed undercard.

Ireland’s Katie Taylor will attempt to win the only women’s lightweight belt she does not already own from Belgian policewoman Delfine Persoon.

If the 32-year-old becomes undisputed champion Costello believes the bout “could be the women’s super fight that the sport needs”.

Bunce added: “Women’s boxing needs a hard contest. I have seen enough of Persoon and I think she brings an awful lot of problems. If Taylor dominates this and wins all the rounds, I will be gobsmacked.”

And Liverpool’s Callum Smith will defend his WBA world super-middleweight title for the first time against French-Cameroonian Hassan N’Dam, a bout which could pave the way for a contest with boxing’s best-paid fighter Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez.

“I think every fighter says it but I believe I have shown the better the opponent and occasion the better the display from me,” said Smith. “I have shown that so far and there’s not much bigger than N’Dam at ‘The Garden’.”

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